Market Timing: When Is The Right Time to Buy or Sell?
September? Wait for lower mortgage rates? Hold out until after the election? The real estate market doesn’t come with a calendar.
There is a question I hear constantly: “When is the right time to buy or sell?”
Sellers tell me they’re thinking about waiting until September or October, when summer travel winds down and more buyers return to the market. Buyers tell me they’re waiting for mortgage rates to come down. And both sides are watching the same things: the economy, interest rates, inventory—and now, an unusually consequential election year.
All of those things matter. But here’s what I think gets lost in the conversation about timing the real estate market: You can't time everything.
You can, however, understand what you’re waiting for—and whether waiting is actually the right move for your lifestyle.
Sellers: Is fall really better?
There’s a good reason sellers are looking at September and October. Summer gets messy. Vacations. Kids out of school. Travel. People who have been thinking about moving finally get back into their normal routines.
Historically, the return to routine can bring buyers back into the market. And in some markets, getting a well-positioned home in front of serious buyers can matter.
So if you’re thinking, “I'll wait until fall,” that's not an irrational strategy. But this fall has another variable.
The midterm elections.
Midterm elections typically don’t have the same direct housing-market significance as a presidential election. I wouldn’t tell a seller that the election will cause the market to stop—or tell a buyer that prices will suddenly move because of the outcome. But politics can create something that matters to real estate even when the politics themselves aren’t about real estate: uncertainty.
And this year’s political environment has been unusually contentious. Some buyers may want to see how the election unfolds before making a major financial commitment, particularly if they’re concerned about taxes, employment, investments, interest rates or the broader economy.
There is research showing that increased political uncertainty can reduce housing transactions and mortgage-market activity. That doesn’t mean the 2026 election will cause a housing slowdown. It means there’s a plausible reason to keep an eye on buyer behavior as we move through the fall. And if the election results are contested or uncertainty persists afterward, the effect could last longer than election day. That makes this fall a little harder to read than a typical September/October market. Which is precisely why I wouldn’t build a selling strategy around one date on the calendar.
Buyers: Waiting for rates?
This is the other big one. “I'll buy when rates come down.” I understand it. Mortgage rates have a huge effect on monthly payment, and even a modest change can make a meaningful difference on a large loan.
At PCBC, economists were projecting mortgage rates to average around 6.3% for the rest of 2026, although geopolitical conditions—including the war in Iran—were identified as a wild card. And the wild card has already shown itself.
As of August 10, 2026, the national average 30-year fixed mortgage rate is around 6.76%, with geopolitical and inflation concerns continuing to influence the bond market.
So yes, rates could come down. They could also stay higher for longer. And here’s the uncomfortable part: We don’t know.
What about those 2% and 3% mortgages?
I think this deserves a reality check. During the pandemic, mortgage rates fell to levels that were extraordinary by historical standards. Thirty-year rates spent substantial time around 3% and even dipped below it. Those rates were real. They were also an extraordinary response to an extraordinary period.
It is difficult to build a 2026 buying or selling strategy around the assumption that we’ll return to those numbers. Maybe rates eventually fall significantly. But waiting indefinitely for another 2%, 3%, or 4% mortgage may mean waiting for a set of economic circumstances that may never return in the same form.
The question isn’t “Will rates ever be lower?” They probably will be at some point. The better question is: “If I found the right house today, would the deal still make sense at today’s rate or for the lifestyle I want today?” Because a mortgage can potentially be refinanced later.
A house you missed because you waited for a theoretical rate may not come back.
There’s another side to lower rates.
There’s a piece of the rate conversation that gets overlooked. If mortgage rates fall meaningfully, buyers don’t necessarily get the entire benefit. Other buyers notice, too.
Lower rates can bring more people off the sidelines. That can increase demand—and competition. In a supply-constrained market like some of the hotspots in the greater Seattle area, that matters.
A buyer waiting for a lower rate may eventually get a cheaper mortgage but face more competition, fewer choices, and potentially higher prices. That doesn’t mean “buy now before rates drop.” It means don't assume that lower rates automatically make buying easier.
Sometimes the opportunity is in the market you’re looking at right now.
So when is the right time?
For sellers, I’d look at more than the season. Is your house ready? Is the price supported by the current market? How much competition will you have when you launch? Are there compelling reasons buyers would choose your house over the one down the street? And, perhaps most importantly, what happens to your plans if you wait three months?
For buyers, I’d ask different questions. Is your financing solid? Do you have enough cash for the purchase and the unexpected? Have you identified what matters most about the house—not just what looks good online? And if the right property appeared tomorrow, would you be ready to act?
Because the market doesn’t give us a flashing green light. It gives us information. Inventory. Rates. Prices. Competition. Days on market. Seller motivation. Buyer demand.
The skill is knowing which information actually matters to your decision.
Stop trying to predict the perfect moment.
Real estate isn’t a stock trade. You’re not trying to buy at the absolute bottom or sell at the absolute top.
You’re making a much more personal decision about where you’re going to live, what you’re going to own, what you can afford, and what comes next. Sometimes waiting is absolutely the right move. Sometimes waiting costs you an opportunity. And sometimes the market changes while you’re waiting for the market to change.
There may never be a perfect time.
There can, however, be a right time for you. That’s the timing question I’d rather help you answer.
Shawn Williams is a Washington real estate broker with Keller Williams Eastside and founder of House of Grā, bringing a background in design, publishing, and business strategy to the way she reads the housing market. In Market Strategy, she looks beyond headlines and averages to understand what the numbers mean for buyers, sellers, neighborhoods, and the decisions that actually matter.
Call/text 206.436.9099 | email: shawn-williams@kw.com
